Why I am here.

My name is Matthew Hubbard. I blog under the name Matty Boy, at Lotsa 'Splainin' 2 Do, a blog devoted to anything I want to write about and Unified Football Theory, based on my proprietary system for analyzing professional football teams.

In mid June, I announced that I would use a mathematical system of my own devising called the Confidence of Victory method to track the electoral college count at my blog once both conventions were done. No_slappz, who is an occasional troll at my website, proposed that we have a bet of a dollar, because without data, he was confident of McCain's victory, even that far away from the election. While I had made no prediction, I was willing to take a bet, but did not trust no_slappz to pay, so I made a counter offer of the stakes. If McCain won, no-slappz could guest blog on Lotsa 'Splainin' for a day. If Obama won, I could guest blog on this blog for a week. I offered this unequal payoff out of generosity. My readership is actually about 100 times greater than this blog's, which is the main reason no_slappz bothers to write his contrarian opinions in my comments at my place.

He desperately wants someone to read what he writes.

My lack of faith in no_slappz' honor was justified by the fact that he did not readily concede his loss, but only allowed me access to guest blog after being reminded twice, once here and once at McCain, not Hussein. A man who loses a bet knows the duty to pay falls directly on him, and should not have to be reminded, like one reminds a child to clean his room or eat his broccoli.


I made no prediction of the outcome in June, because I considered the early polls to be unreliable, as did no_slappz. The difference is that I wasn't certain what would happen without more data, and waited before I made anything like a prediction, while no_slappz was certain, a character flaw of his I will discuss in greater detail tomorrow.

As a gambler, I know not to celebrate early. Even when my system showed the odds of McCain winning had dwindled so badly that he was worse than a 1,000 to 1 underdog, I told my readers about big upset wins and that they should work until the result was final.

My system of prediction worked remarkably well. The last numbers I published on the Sunday before the election gave Obama 353 electors, McCain 174 and 11 electors in Indiana were a 50%-50% tossup. In the final count, Obama won Indiana and one of the three separate electors in Nebraska for an electoral landslide of 364 to 173, a margin greater than 2 to 1.

I work hard with my numerical systems, and I am gratified when they are successful. I've used my football data to make predictions this week and last, now that there is enough data to judge teams this season. Last week I went 6-3 in nine picks and this week I went 7-3 in the first ten games in which I made predictions, with one pick left.

My system likes the odds of the 49ers and Cardinals scoring more than 46 points total this evening. Do with this information what you will.

I will check in tomorrow with another post.