Sunday, January 03, 2010

2010 to 2020 -- Some Likely Events

Some Deaths in this Decade:

Finally and inevitably we will get to applaud the death of Fidel Castro. An even more despicable tyrant close to the end of his days is Robert Mugabe. Two dictators both responsible for the economic failure of their countries. Both close to death.

Kim Jong Il is another faltering nation destroyer. Based on rumors of a stroke and other medical problems, he is another martinet whose departure will come as great news to millions. Sadly, however, he's got a son who is rumored to be his successor. But, it has been said that Kim Jong Il's son is an irresponsible spoiled lout who will lose control of the starving North Koreans. We can hope.

The king of Saudi Arabia is almost a goner. However, his death will mean little with respect to the mismanagement of Saudi Arabia. The country will remain a stronghold of muslim fundamentalism where all women are forced to wear their burquas; where corporal and capital punishments are carried out in public in Riyadh every Tuesday afternoon.

On the other hand, a revered leader we are likely to lose is Nelson Mandela. Apparently Hollywood has anticipated his demise by producing Invictus.

Meanwhile, the death of another leader is a certainty. In this decade the reviled Osama bin Laden will die.

Most amusing is the possibility of his assassination by people dissatisfied with his now limp brand of terrorism. However, it is possible bin Laden is already dead. It has been said he has kidney problems, perhaps problems serious enough to require dialysis. If this is true, then a life of roaming from cave to cave is eventually going to allow an infection to invade his body and kill him.

There are some Americans on the pending death list. Unlike the tyrants destroying lives in other countries, the Americans will leave behind something of value.

Herman Wouk, writer of the Caine Mutiny and a long list of great novels is 95. Will he see 105? Not likely. Same for J.D. Salinger. He will turn 91 this year.

Warren Buffett will have his 80th birthday this year. Is he likely to celecbrate his 90th? Maybe. Though our geriatric population is growing rapidly, the herd is decidedly thin for those 90 and older. However, the benefits of Buffett's genius will live on.

The next decade will see plenty of corporate deaths. Enron and Worldcom collapsed in scandal in the last decade. GM exists now in corporate limbo, but its life support will end when its leadership fails to develop and market the cars Americans really want. The government has ordered GM to build an electric car -- Chevy Volt -- that is guaranteed to replace the Edsel as the image of a failed automotive venture. After its electric-car debacle the company will go to the corporate graveyard, a victim of the greed of its unyielding union employees mixed with the madness of our government attempting to mandate consumer desires.

The competition for best energy source will result in a winner. The winner is OIL and its related hydrocarbons. The Sun may be our source of vitamin D, but it is not much use as a source for electricity. The realities of Chemistry, Physics and Energy Conversion will leave no doubt that OIL is the best natural resource for powering the world.

If there is a return of sanity to our domestic energy policy, then we will restart our Nuclear Power Industry. But without some serious study of physics and chemistry at the top levels of the US government, as well as similar study in the general population, the return of energy sanity is a long shot.

We will also see the death of Global Warming. Is the atmosphere feeling an impact from human activity? Let's just say Yes, it is. That means something. There are 6.8 billion people walking the Earth today. Demographers expect the global population to reach 9 billion by the middle of the century. That suggests the number of people on the planet will pass 7 billion before 2020.

Every one of them wants greater prosperity. If democracy and capitalism spread, then a growing percentage of them will enjoy that prosperity. It will show in the number of cars, trucks, planes, buses, trains, and other forms of transporatation that are whizzing around. More money, more cars. More people will have computers and some people will get electricity for the first time.

Increasing prosperity means we will put more energy than ever into producing goods and services.

At some point, intelligent people will acknowledge the tragedy in Africa. Every year in Africa unclean water spreads illnesses that lead to 5 million deaths. Right now. Five million people a year die from drinking dirty water. Is there a medical condition tied to Global Warming? Well, if you count high anxiety, then there is ONE.

How crazy is it to obsess about the unknown impact of Global Warming when the climate gurus predict the unknown impact is a century away? How crazy is it to obsess about Global Warming when 5 million people a year die from drinking water that is easily cleaned?

Meanwhile, every year about 500,000 Americans die of smoking-related illnesses. When will the Morons of America Stop Smoking? Is it ridiculous to think people will stop doing something that promises to give them lung cancer and/or emphysema? Is there much likelihood Americans will break their cigarette habit? A growing number probably will. But something continues to seduce a few million new smokers every year.

Healthcare is simple. The price of regaining good health is high. Staggeringly high. But the price of living healthy is nothing. Zero.

There is no medical management strategy that will reduce the individual or aggregate amounts we spend on healthcare. Americans smoke, drink, eat foolishly and get too little exercise. In other words, our lifestyle is killing us. Shortening our lives unnecessarily, and at great expense.

No amount of auditing or medical efficiency practices will lower our healthcare bills. When it comes to medicine, we are too smart for our own good. We know with enough brainpower, enough study and enough experimentation we can conquer almost any illness or medical problem. Whatever it is, we can conquer it -- eventually.

Americans believe in the brilliance of the medical community. In other words, we believe doctors can repair the abuse we willingly inflict on our bodies.

We need a new perspective. We need to avoid illness. It's that simple. Avoid illness by avoiding the activities that cause illness. Smoking, drinking, drugs, bad eating, and lack of exercise -- that's what does us in.

If Americans quit smoking, cut back on alcohol, stopped misusing drugs, ate healthy and took a daily walk, our national healthcare bill would drop by One-Third.

Of course we would still suffer from the ailments for which we do not know the cause. But if we were to eliminate our lung cancer bills by getting Americans to quit smoking, for example, we would have more money to tackle problems that are still medical mysteries. Can we be smart about health?

Iran will collapse. If Iranians are lucky, the collapse will occur when a new student revolution boots the current mad religious regime and saves the nation from a nuclear pounding its leaders are now seeking.

If Iran launches a nuclear attack on Israel, Israel will counterstrike with its own nuclear weapons. However, there will be a vast difference in the outcomes. Iranians, due to their muslim incompetence with all technologies, will launch an a nuclear attack that is, at best, a near failure. But they may succeed in detonating a nuclear weapon somewhere near Israel, which will trigger a response that will leave Tehran in ashes.

Joe Biden will leave the vice presidency at the end of Obama's current term. He vanished from public view several weeks ago, which suggests he opened his big yap in a foolish way -- again. This time, probably in some way that offended Michelle Obama, who told Barack to dump him.

Fortunately, presidents are limited to two terms. Thus, at worst, the Obama administration must end in 2016. But he can do a lot of harm in the next seven years. Voters have begun to realize he is a talker unable to accomplish any of the goals he set for his administration. If the nation is lucky, he will lose in the 2012 election.

He promised to close the Guantanamo Bay prison his first year in office. However, that will not happen, and it will not happen partly because he is begining to realize there is no safe place to house the inmates. Meanwhile, returning them to the middle east is no solution. Some of those who were released have already returned to their old terrorist ways.

Sadly, Obama is afraid to end the Cuban Embargo. He has an opportunity to win a war without firing a shot. He can show that occasionally the pen is truly mightier than the sword simply be revoking the embargo. If he were to do that today, the Marxist failure of the Cuban dictatorship would collapse before the end of Obama's first, and possibly only term.

Obama's supporters have begun comparing him to Jimmy Carter. Does it get any worse?

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Blogger SNAKE HUNTERS said...

Just One of Barry Obama's Mistakes after ObamaHealthCare, is the absurd notion of 'Wealth Redistribution' -

If this becomes the Law of the Land, it follows that the U.S. Government must Tax The Producers Of Goods & Services, Penalizing The
Job Creators, and Forcing More JOBS

Unemployment is currently at 10%.


12:32 AM  
Blogger no_slappz said...


You are correct. Any government action that raises the cost of producing goods and services is grounds for businesses to find ways to avoid those higher costs.

American consumers want products that possess value -- the best quality for the lowest price.

US industry can compete on that basis -- if it is freed from counterproductive drags on efficiency and capital use.

GM failed because management surrendered its freedom to manage the car business in exchange for labor peace. The exchange worked reasonably well for a couple of decades following WWII. But when faced with foreign competition and every tactic foreign competitors had, GM began losing strength.

Actually, GM's strength remained relatively steady while the strength of foreign car-makers, most notably Toyota, increased year by year.

GM should have learned from Toyota as well as GE. From Toyota, GM should have learned how to stay at the top of the car business, and from GE, GM should have learned how to exit lines of business that were heading for second-rate status.

Instead, GM lumbered along until it collapsed. Now that it has been transformed into Government Motors, it will hang on a little longer. But due to its cost structure and misjudgments about new products, the company is as good as dead.

9:19 AM  

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