Wisdom of Warren Buffett

Little needs saying after Buffett lets investors and other concerned Americans know that our economy is still the remarkable engine that it's been for many decades.

Five Investing Tips From Warren Buffett

What does Warren Buffett's message to stockholders mean for you and your money?

Every year Mr. Buffett, the world's third-richest man and arguably the most successful stock-market investor in history, writes a letter to stockholders in his investment company Berkshire Hathaway. The latest came out this weekend. There are usually some nuggets for all those who haven't invested in Berkshire, and this year's letter was no exception. Here are five:

1. Watch out for stock-market valuations.

Mr. Buffett's company is now sitting on a cash hoard of $38 billion. "That's among the highest levels it's ever been," says Stifel Nicolas analyst Meyer Shields. While Mr. Buffett says he is looking for a big acquisition, and has his "elephant gun loaded," the high cash pile also suggests he's having a challenge finding really good deals. If Mr. Buffett is cautious, investors might want to take note: It's another sign that many valuations on the stock market may be looking a little stretched.

Mr. Buffett's company is now sitting on a cash hoard of $38 billion. "That's among the highest levels it's ever been," says Stifel Nicolas analyst Meyer Shields. While Mr. Buffett says he is looking for a big acquisition, and has his "elephant gun loaded," the high cash pile also suggests he's having a challenge finding really good deals. If Mr. Buffett is cautious, investors might want to take note: It's another sign that many valuations on the stock market may be looking a little stretched.


2. Coke is it.

Mr. Buffett rarely makes predictions, but in the case of Coca-Cola —a long-term holding—he issues a remarkable one: Dividends will probably "double ... within ten years," he writes. That would take them from last year's $1.76 to $3.52 per share. If Coca-Cola stock didn't move over that period, it would raise the dividend yield from 2.5% today to above 5%. Berkshire owns 8.6% of Coca-Cola stock.


3. Some of his favorite stocks are still cheap.

While the stock market overall has boomed, and it's a battle to find cheap stocks, one thing does stand out: Many of Warren Buffett's favorite stocks remain at, or around, the prices he paid for them. As Mr. Buffett only likes to buy stocks for a lot less than he thinks they are really worth, this suggests you can get a bargain or two—although, as always, there are no guarantees.

They include French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis. Berkshire Hathaway has accumulated about $1.8 billion worth of the stock. Sanofi's share price has come under pressure lately as a result of its acquisition of biotech giant Genzyme. At $35, its American Depositary Receipts are now about 12% below the average price Mr. Buffett paid.

Or look at Kraft Foods. Mr. Buffett owns 97 million shares, a hefty 5.6% of the company, for which he paid an average of $33 each. Today the stock is just $32. It has been held back, in part, by the costs of the takeover of Britain's Cadbury. But the stock yields a decent 3.7%. It is a reasonable 14 times forecast earnings, and just over 1.1 times annual revenues.

Mr. Buffett also owns 45 million shares in health-care behemoth Johnson & Johnson, a stake valued at about $2.7 billion. He paid about $61 for the stock: It's now $60, 12 times forecast earnings, yielding 3.6%. A cheap stock.

And what about Wal-Mart Stores? It's tumbled in recent weeks to $52. That's just 12 times forecast earnings. And the dividend yield, 2.3%, may not be huge, but it's the highest it's ever been. Today's price is just a few dollars a share more than Warren Buffett paid: Berkshire Hathaway accumulated a $2 billion stake at an average of about $48.50.


4. Berkshire stock isn't expensive, by Mr. Buffett's own calculations.

No one knows exactly what a share in Berkshire Hathaway is really worth. Mr. Buffett himself told investors over the weekend that if you ask him and his veteran co-manager Charlie Munger to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock, "you will get two different answers. Precision just isn't possible."

However, he says, "book," or net asset, value is his preferred "understated proxy for intrinsic value." Mr. Buffett writes, "To be sure, some of our businesses are worth far more than their carrying value on our books.... But since that premium seldom swings wildly from year to year, book value can serve as a reasonable device for tracking how we are doing."

So it's intriguing that Berkshire Hathaway stock today trades at $128,000, or just 1.3 times that book value. Stifel's Mr. Shields says the historic average is about 1.6 times. If the "premium" between book value and the intrinsic value doesn't swing that much from year to year, one might conclude that Berkshire is looking a little cheap.

Naturally, as a big company, it has a lot less growth ahead of it. And as Mr. Buffett is 80, his years of producing spectacular investment returns are nearer the end than the beginning. Nonetheless, in a market where so many investments seem to be trading at lofty valuations, it is notable that Berkshire is below its average.

For those who wish to invest, and who don't have $128,000 in spare cash, the economy-class "B" shares trade for $85.


5. Get ready for a dividend hike at Wells Fargo.

Mr. Buffett's favorite bank, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, has had its dividend levels held back by the Federal Reserve, along with other banks, during the financial crisis. "At some point, probably soon, the Fed's restrictions will cease," he writes. "Wells Fargo can then reinstate the rational dividend policy that its owners deserve. At that time, we would expect our annual dividends from just this one security to increase by several hundreds of millions of dollars annually."

Berkshire Hathaway owns about $11 billion worth of Wells Fargo stock. It added a small amount in the fourth quarter. At $32, Wells Fargo is just 11 times forecast earnings, and less than one and a half times book value—compared to nearly three times book value five years ago. The dividend yield under the current regime is a paltry 0.6%. Five years ago it was around 3%.

The Simple Brilliance of Warren Buffett

He makes it look so easy. How does he do it? He had to conquer his emotions and act rationally. Based on his net worth, his way works. No one else is even close. Except Bill Gates. But Gates' wealth is built on a single idea. Buffett's wealth is built on a dispassionate understanding of how things work.

The Oracle's Tips for the Rest of Us

Every few years, critics say Warren Buffett has lost his touch. He's too old and too old-fashioned, they claim. He doesn't get it anymore. This time he's wrong.

It happened during the dotcom bubble, when Mr. Buffett was mocked for refusing to join the party. And it happened again last year. As the Dow tumbled below 7,000, Mr. Buffett came under fire for having jumped into the crisis too early and too boldly, making big bets on Goldman Sachs and General Electric during the fall of 2008, and urging the public to plunge into shares.

Now it's time for those critics to sit down for their traditional three course meal: humble pie, their own words and crow.

On Saturday, Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported that net earnings rocketed 61% last year to $5,193 per share, while book value jumped 20% to a record high. Berkshire's Class A shares, which slumped to nearly $70,000 last year, have rebounded to $120,000.

Those bets on GE and Goldman? They've made billions so far. And anyone who took Mr. Buffett's advice and invested in the stock market in October 2008, even through a simple index fund, is up about 25%.

This is nothing new, of course. Anyone who held a $10,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway at the start of 1965 has about $80 million today.

How does he do it? Mr. Buffett explained his beliefs to new investors in his letter to stockholders Saturday:

Stay liquid. "We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers," he wrote. "We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses."

Buy when everyone else is selling. "We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend ... . Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."

Don't buy when everyone else is buying. "Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance," Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.

Value, value, value. "In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business -- through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market -- and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two."

Don't get suckered by big growth stories. Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger "avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be."

Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. "Dramatic growth" doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?

Understand what you own. "Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us," Mr. Buffett wrote.

"We want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it's one that follows policies with which they concur."

Defense beats offense. "Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that's likely to continue." All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.