Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Several months ago, before the panics created by Major Hasan's muslim terrorist murder of 13 soldiers at Fort Hood and before the Christmas day attempt at airborne mass murder by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the nation was obsessed with fears of dying from Swine Flu.

Talking head and pundits from every corner of the nation were predicting a pandemic. Not an epidemic, but a pandemic, which is much worse. The epidemic spread of an epidemic, promising a death toll of Black Plague proportions.

However, for the past month or two, little media attention has been given to the Center for Disease Control, the people who track and fight health problems like Swine Flu.

Truckloads Of Unused Swine Flu Vaccines

Friday, 08 Jan 2010

MYFOXNY.COM - After months of fear, media coverage and government warnings there wasn't as much demand for the swine flu vaccine in New York state as expected.

Truckloads of swine flu vaccines are being returned by counties that say the expected demand for the shots never happened.

When the state's H1N1 vaccination program kicked off in the fall there were fears that there wouldn't be enough of the new vaccine to go around.

The flu strain has not spread as wide as feared and some people were also unsure of pumping a quickly developed vaccine into their bodies.

Despite the lack of media attention, the Center for Disease Control releases a steady stream of information. Such as:

Situation Update

Flu Activity: Overall flu activity in the United States decreased slightly during the week of December 27-January 2, 2010, as reported in FluView. Though flu activity, caused by either 2009 H1N1 or seasonal flu viruses, may rise and fall, it is expected to continue for several more months.

Synopsis:

During week 52 (December 27, 2009-January 2, 2010), influenza activity decreased slightly in the U.S.

Pneumonia and Influenza Hospitalization and Death Tracking:


From August 30, 2009 – January 2, 2010, 37,778 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations and 1,735 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths were reported to CDC.

Obviously the threat of death from Swine Flu is far greater than the threat of dying in an airborne attack perpetrated by a terrorist organization. But you would miss this crucial point if you accepted the headlines.

It seems we accept the ever-present threat of illness and we accept that our efforts to fight diseases like Swine Flu are managed reasonably well. No one is calling for the resignation of the Surgeon General or high-ranking public health officials. That complacency suggests most Americans believe our government is providing some value when it comes to combatting public health threats.

When it comes to protection from terrorists, it is clear Americans -- and our leaders -- are in a panic. Based on the three most recent attacks on Americans perpetrated by muslims, it is clear our protective efforts are subpar. Major Hasan infiltrated the US Army and ultimately murdered 13 soliders and wounded 29 more; Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to bring down an airliner on Christmas Day and a Jordanian doctor who had offered to work as a double agent for the CIA killed eight agents in a suicide attack. These examples show the deep flaws in the way we manage our security.

When it comes to crime, our smartest police leaders have learned the value of data. Police know where trouble is most likely to occur, which leads to manpower deployment to those sites. The result? Reduced crime rates. It appears that airline security measures have deterred airborne terrorists from carrying out their plans. However, after seeing the ease with which the known radical and bomb-carrying Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab boarded a plane, it looks as though our record of safe flying is more a matter of good luck rather than true deterrence.

When it comes to Homeland Security, Are We Getting Good Value for the Dollars Spent? No.

Dot Coma

Bumbling Bunglers. That's what they are. That's what our lawyer-limited security personnel have become. All textbook, no action.

On November 5, 2009 muslim terrorist Major Malik Hasan murdered 13 members of the US Army and wounded 29 more at Fort Hood. Before firing over 100 shots at targets in the facility he chose for his killing grounds, he exchanged a series of 18 e-mails with radical Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the same fanatical imam who advised Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab.

The contact between Hasan and imam al-Awlaki went back more than a year and during that time they discussed jihad and whether God permits the murder of innocent people in suicide attacks.

About two weeks after Major Hasan committed his terrorist attack on US soil against members of the US military, the father of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab called the US embassy in Nigeria to report that his son has become radicalized in Yemen. The father is a respected Nigerian banker.

As a result, Abdulmutallab's name is entered into the National Counterterrorism Center's terrorist database.

On December 16, 2009, Abdulmutallab bought a roundtrip airline ticket to travel from Accra, Ghana to Detroit. He paid cash.

His flight departed December 25, 2009. Remarkably, he was traveling without luggage. He had paid for his ticket with cash.

Those two factors should have triggered a personal interview with security people. But that did not happen. However, after considering the additional factor of Abdulmutallab's father informing US Embassy personnel that his son had become radicalized in Yemen, an arrest should have been made at the Ghana airport.

Last week seven CIA agents were murdered when they believed they had found a muslim to work for them as a double agent. Instead, he turned the tables and detonated a bomb he carried. Why did he succeed? The CIA agents made the fatal mistake of trusting him. He had gained their confidence and exploited that confidence to commit a terrorist act of murder. Worse, he had been involved in security in Jordan, which suggests anti-American activities are underway in Jordan.

The answer to the detection problem is already available. Israel knows how to spot and deter airborne terrorists. Moreover, the US appears to have conderable expertise when it comes to finding, indentifying and arresting people with an interest in child pornography. You would think the same strategies would work when the quarry is a terrorist.

Unfortunately, the Obama administration, defined by its depraved incompetence, now wants to re-invent the wheel. When it comes to stopping terrorism, it is suffering from the Not-Invented-Here syndrome. Worse is the fact the Obama team is trying to re-invent this wheel with bad science.

Our security program is focused on spotting weapons. Hence, there must be a growing collection of knives, ice picks, knitting needles, and large bottles of shampoo accumulating at every airport. If we were smart -- like the Israelis -- we would focus on the terrorists themselves. Not the equipment they might possess. Israel profiles behavior. We should too. A passenger who pays cash is suspicious. A passenger on a transatlantic flight who flies without luggage is suspicious. A passenger whose father has called the US Embassy to report his son's Islmaic radicalization in Yemen is exactly what he appears to be -- a muslim terrorist.

In the Abdulmutallab episode, no one needed to Connect the Dots. In this episode, security people needed to step back as this bowling ball of terroristic plans landed in their offices.