Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Several months ago, before the panics created by Major Hasan's muslim terrorist murder of 13 soldiers at Fort Hood and before the Christmas day attempt at airborne mass murder by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the nation was obsessed with fears of dying from Swine Flu.

Talking head and pundits from every corner of the nation were predicting a pandemic. Not an epidemic, but a pandemic, which is much worse. The epidemic spread of an epidemic, promising a death toll of Black Plague proportions.

However, for the past month or two, little media attention has been given to the Center for Disease Control, the people who track and fight health problems like Swine Flu.

Truckloads Of Unused Swine Flu Vaccines

Friday, 08 Jan 2010

MYFOXNY.COM - After months of fear, media coverage and government warnings there wasn't as much demand for the swine flu vaccine in New York state as expected.

Truckloads of swine flu vaccines are being returned by counties that say the expected demand for the shots never happened.

When the state's H1N1 vaccination program kicked off in the fall there were fears that there wouldn't be enough of the new vaccine to go around.

The flu strain has not spread as wide as feared and some people were also unsure of pumping a quickly developed vaccine into their bodies.

Despite the lack of media attention, the Center for Disease Control releases a steady stream of information. Such as:

Situation Update

Flu Activity: Overall flu activity in the United States decreased slightly during the week of December 27-January 2, 2010, as reported in FluView. Though flu activity, caused by either 2009 H1N1 or seasonal flu viruses, may rise and fall, it is expected to continue for several more months.

Synopsis:

During week 52 (December 27, 2009-January 2, 2010), influenza activity decreased slightly in the U.S.

Pneumonia and Influenza Hospitalization and Death Tracking:


From August 30, 2009 – January 2, 2010, 37,778 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations and 1,735 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths were reported to CDC.

Obviously the threat of death from Swine Flu is far greater than the threat of dying in an airborne attack perpetrated by a terrorist organization. But you would miss this crucial point if you accepted the headlines.

It seems we accept the ever-present threat of illness and we accept that our efforts to fight diseases like Swine Flu are managed reasonably well. No one is calling for the resignation of the Surgeon General or high-ranking public health officials. That complacency suggests most Americans believe our government is providing some value when it comes to combatting public health threats.

When it comes to protection from terrorists, it is clear Americans -- and our leaders -- are in a panic. Based on the three most recent attacks on Americans perpetrated by muslims, it is clear our protective efforts are subpar. Major Hasan infiltrated the US Army and ultimately murdered 13 soliders and wounded 29 more; Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to bring down an airliner on Christmas Day and a Jordanian doctor who had offered to work as a double agent for the CIA killed eight agents in a suicide attack. These examples show the deep flaws in the way we manage our security.

When it comes to crime, our smartest police leaders have learned the value of data. Police know where trouble is most likely to occur, which leads to manpower deployment to those sites. The result? Reduced crime rates. It appears that airline security measures have deterred airborne terrorists from carrying out their plans. However, after seeing the ease with which the known radical and bomb-carrying Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab boarded a plane, it looks as though our record of safe flying is more a matter of good luck rather than true deterrence.

When it comes to Homeland Security, Are We Getting Good Value for the Dollars Spent? No.

Swine Flu -- A Fine Brew

When it comes to getting a few days off, there's nothing like a little hysteria to do the trick. Swine Flu. Oooh, let's party like it's 1918. Ha. Financial fears, the crumbling housing market, falling stocks, job losses. Terrible news from all over. When people face man-made calamities, they like to say "if you've got your health, you've got everything."

Then comes the Swine Flu. Hysteria emerges, threatening people in ways that have them believing every aspect of life is headed into the toilet. Thoughts about the end of the world as we know it rise up and no one can stop them from affecting life. Even the Conspiracy Theorists have gotten into the act, claiming the Swine Flu is the result of a bio-terrorist attack.

However, it will all be forgotten in about two weeks, when a new crisis has surfaced to replace this one. Maybe Americans will shift their focus back to banks and the possible Armageddon of our financial system. However, most Americans are tired of that fear and would prefer a new one.

Swine flu may be less potent than first feared

May 1, 2009

The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs.

President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.

In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.

A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.

"It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus, in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these preparations," Obama said, using the flu's scientific name.

New York officials said after a week of monitoring the disease that the city's outbreak gives little sign of spreading beyond a few pockets or getting more dangerous.

All but two of the city's confirmed cases so far involve people associated with the high school where the local outbreak began and where several students had recently returned from Mexico.

Almost everyone who became ill before then are either recovering or already well. The school, which was closed this past week, is scheduled to reopen Monday. No new confirmed cases were identified in the city on Friday, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the outbreak in New York had so far proved to be "a relatively minor annoyance."

So far in the United States, he said, the virus appears to look and behave like the garden-variety flus that strike every winter. "There is no real reason to believe this is a more serious strain," he said.

The president also said the U.S. government is working to produce a vaccine down the road, developing clear guidelines for school closings and trying to ensure businesses cooperate with workers who run out of sick leave.

He pointed out that regular seasonal flus kill about 36,000 people in the United States in an average year and send 200,000 to the hospital.